Iron ore price

Iron ore is following its seasonal pattern into a rebound (that will be aided by oil).

The ferrous complex is trying to hold $100.

Spewing, I missed this move lower thanks to the Iran War, but headwind seasonality is growing short, so I won’t chase it.

The ferrous complex is weak.

Iron ore has fallen 10% in recent weeks.

As we know, the Pilbara killer (Simandou) is pumping iron ore faster than anyone expected, to 2.2mt in May, suggesting that by year-end it could be in the 30-40mt annual range as locomotives arrive en masse.

According to ship tracking data from Kpler, shipments from the project’s Morebaya port reached 2.2 million tonnes during the month, far more than the record of 1.3 million tonnes set in April.

The ferrous complex has come off but remains very elevated.

It’s been obvious that the ferrous market has been levitating for months.

The ferrous jaws are open.

The ferrous jaws are as wide as ever.

Iron ore is printing money, though I’m blowed if I know why.

For no sensible reason, iron ore is threatening to break out to its highest point in two years.

The Chinese PMIs were a mixed bag, but overall showed a slowing economy.

Steel prices have been rising, which does not make much sense.

The iron ore jaws are wide on the war.

Chinese steel exports are down 10% in Q1.

The ferrous complex is weakening as peace prospects in the Gulf improve.

The ferrous jaws are back.

The ferrous complex is still agitating around oil, but the jaws are pretty wide, even accounting for increased shipping costs.

The ferrous market pulse is fading.

The ferrous complex is trading the war, not itself.

China’s January/February growth numbers were out yesterday and showed some broad strength. Industrial production growth increased to 6.3% yoy in January-February from 5.2% yoy in December due to significantly stronger-than-expected exports. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth significantly increased from -13.0% yoy in December to +1.8% yoy in January-February.

DXY flamed out last night on the G7 unpledge to release petroleum reserves.

The world is falling apart, but the jaws are back.