Australian LNG

From cartel HQ.

Let’s begin with Art Bermin, one of the best oil analysts in the world.

Two of Australia’s richest people are very unimpressed with your coming cheaper utility bills.

Yesterday we saw an increase in the monthly CPI of 0.4%mth (4.2%yr), undershooting expectations.

Santos is lying again, which is what it does best.

A draft framework for the reservation system released by the government on Monday confirms it will require producers to sell the equivalent of 20% of their LNG exports into the local market.

These numbers are the latest but are a week old.

In flying, the most elastic demand is in Asia, then Europe, LATAM, with the US barely affected despite having the largest price rises.

According to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation gas policy, “a minimum 15% of all gas extracted from Australian sources” should be set aside for the domestic market.

This is what the fog of war looks like.

More gas cartel whinging today at Cartel Headquarters.

So far, it has only happened in private. Will it happen officially? ANZ explores. Australia is heavily dependent on refined fuel (diesel, petrol and jet fuel), with over 90% of these fuels imported.

Lots of headlines.

Gas cartel central is freaking out.

Dated Brent was stable overnight. HSBC explores how oil will balance. If refined product flows remain constrained, the market cannot rebalance through stock drawdowns alone indefinitely. Product demand (not just crude demand by refineries) will have to eventually adjust through a mix of adaptation, price response, and rationing.

WA’s gas reservation policy is effective for one simple reason.

Via Professor Robert Pape, author of The Escalation Trap.

The AFR describes growing confusion and criticism surrounding the Albanese government’s proposed gas reservation scheme, which would require major LNG exporters to reserve 20 per cent of gas for the domestic Australian market from 2027.

Morgan Stanley has some great charts today.

What a pathetic human being Anthony Albanese is.

POTUS says Iran is going to capitulate as its oil wells explode. BofA estimates the timeline. Modest oil exports (250k bpd) at high oil prices could allow the Iranian regime to remain cohesive and service its wage bill, at the cost of potentially wider post-war economic imbalances.

Albo the coward hasn’t read The Art of the Deal.