Australian interest rates

Last week, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) released its new prudential standard, effective February 2026, which caps high-risk mortgages (debt-to-income ratio over 6x) at 20% of new lending.

Labor’s First Home Guarantee scheme, which commenced at the beginning of October, enables first home buyers to purchase a home with only a 5% deposit without requiring lenders’ mortgage insurance, with the government guaranteeing 15% of the mortgage.

Just how corrupt is Albo?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has debuted its highly anticipated “complete” monthly consumer price index.

On Wednesday this week, the ABS will finally release a full monthly CPI series that will ultimately replace the quarterly measure.

The RBA has been strong on the idea that a rebound in services wage growth is behind the recent bounce in headline inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%.

ANZ has a few nice charts showing how labour costs have nothing to do with the recent inflation pop.

God save me from the eggheds of the RBA.

DXY is breaking out in the nightmare scenario for everybody.

Following last week’s CPI inflation shocker, financial markets abandoned hopes of further rate cuts. As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to hold the official cash rate steady at 3.60%.

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation surged by 1.0% in the September quarter to be 3.0% higher year-on-year—the top of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band.

Australia’s official unemployment rate was 4.5% in September, the highest reading since November 2021 and significantly above the Reserve Bank’s forecast contained in its August Statement of Monetary Policy.

RBA futures still see one more interest rate cut, but it’s six months away Meanwhile, Bloxo leads off the rate hike hysteria.

Last week’s shocking inflation result, which saw Australia’s trimmed mean inflation surge by 1.0% in Q3 2025 and the annual rate of inflation rise to 3.0%, has all but eliminated chances of another interest rate cut over the foreseeable future.

For a government so intent on staying in power, versus making good policy, the neglect of energy markets has come to define it.

Wednesday’s CPI shocker, which saw annual trimmed mean inflation jump by 1.0% and 3.0% year-on-year, has shut the door on near-term interest rate cuts. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was looking for trimmed mean inflation of 2.6% at the end of 2025.

The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

RBA governor Michelle Bullock did a fireside chat last night, which was pretty dull but it did have a few moments of interest.

As we know, the RBA is intellectually bankrupt.

Roy Morgan Research has released a survey on mortgage stress, which shows that the lowest share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ since February 2023, just prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) first rate hike.

So says Societe General.

The NAB survey out yesterday was not very encouraging.

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the official cash rate at 3.60%, citing resurgent inflation risks.

Last week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock was grilled by Greens senator Nick McKim about the RBA’s role in the housing crisis.