Chinese Golden Week slides into the brown

Monday 5 October 2026

Iron ore is crashing.

Except it isn’t. The freight premium is coming out. C5 has dropped $6 from the peak in the last few weeks. Adjusted for normal freight costs, CFR is roughly stable around $87.

Forward indicators remain poor. Steel demand is pancaked.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.