The Warshach test

David Llewellyn-Smith

Monday 14 September 2026

The US CPI was higher than expected on Friday night. It exhibited four problems.

First, and most obviously, headline CPI was juiced by oil and products.

Second, the effect already appears to be trickling down into core goods, which include food and El Niño ahead.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.