Australian tenants have faced a torrid period since the pandemic, with advertised rents nationally soaring by more than 40% over the past five years.
Gerard Burg, Cotality’s Head of Research, noted last month that “the median rent has risen by over $200 per week in the last five years” and that households were “paying a record proportion of their income to rent”.
Finally, the rental situation does appear to be easing. Cotality’s latest monthly data shows that rental growth is moderating amid rising vacancy rates.
National rents grew by 5.7% in August, according to Cotality, down from 5.9% over the three months prior. The national rental vacancy rate also rose to 1.9% in August, the highest reading since January 2025.
Cotality’s weekly market indicators report also shows a marked increase in the number of rental listings across the combined capital cities over recent weeks:
Source: Cotality
In fact, for the first time in a long time, Cotality has reported more rental listings than at the same time last year, with listings 2.8% higher across the combined capital cities:
Source: Cotality
The above charts on rental listings are the strongest indicator that the market is finally easing.
Looking ahead, I expect net overseas migration to continue to fall from its recent historical highs. Even Labor has pledged to lower net overseas migration back to its budgeted levels.
At the same time, the latest National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC) report indicated that households are banding together to afford shelter amid record poor affordability:
These factors combined should slow rental growth, although it will likely remain above wage growth.
Ultimately, the solution to the rental crisis involves following Canada’s approach and slashing immigration:
Canada’s deep immigration cuts have resulted in asking rents falling for 23 consecutive months, now roughly 8% below their 2024 peak.
