Worst El Nino in half a century to incinerate housing

Tuesday 4 August 2026

So say the SOI. In fact, we are now at twice-per-century levels.

NOAA has confirmed the development of El Niño conditions and the potential for a very strong episode has increased to 81%.

Evidence indicates this is one of the best occurrences since 1950.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.