Midterm boom

Friday 28 August 2026

The Market Ear examines the history of midterms.

Upside pain

Tech has been aggressively de-grossed, NDX is bouncing from support and Nvidia has once again reinforced the structural AI capex story. With QQQ vol cheap, software breaking out and the calendar becoming increasingly supportive, the ingredients for renewed upside pain are falling into place.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.