Major bank: Interest rate hike in November or earlier

Thursday 27 August 2026

The bank is Goldman Sachs, and it is hard to argue against.

The bank notes that the headline monthly CPI rose 1.0% month over month, with year-over-year growth dropping 30 basis points to 3.5% yoy, above both our and market estimates (GSe: +3.1% yoy; BBG: +3.3% yoy).

Worse, the ABS monthly trimmed mean measure grew by 0.5% in July but remained steady at 3.6% yoy, which was likewise higher than anticipated (GSe/BBG: +3.5% yoy).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.