Australian dollar up or down if America falls?

Friday 14 August 2026

Readers will know that my base case for the coming midterms gauntlet is a disaster for the American republic.

Polling indicates that both the House and Senate will swing to the Democrats, opening the way for the mass impeachment of the Trump cabinet.

The Senate is closer and is the key, as it manages the impeachment process. If Trump keeps it, we may avoid a major crisis.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.