Major bank: House price drop to smash consumption

Monday 13 July 2026

Goldman says household consumption is expected to slow significantly over the next 18 months, posing a key risk to the domestic economy.

Consumer spending growth is forecast to fall from current levels to 1.3% year-on-year by the end of 2026, before recovering modestly to 2.4% by the end of 2027.

As a result, economic growth is also expected to be slightly weaker than previously forecast, with GDP projected to reach 2.5% by the end of 2027.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.