The past six years have seen Brisbane dwelling values swing from being “affordable” at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to the second-most expensive in the nation, following a 122% rise over the six years to March 2026.
The contrast between Melbourne (Victoria) is especially stark.
As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the average value of the housing stock (not the price of transacted properties) in Queensland has shot well past Victoria’s:
Chart by Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
At the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, Victoria housing was trading at a 45% premium to Queensland.
As of March 2026, the picture had reversed, with Victoria trading at a 16% discount to Queensland.
The boom is well and truly over for Brisbane, with Cotality recording a 0.5% decline in values over the past 28 days, amid a deteriorating trend.
Cotality has also recorded a sharp decline in auction clearance rates, which are now tracking below 40%.
Indeed, new data from PropTrack, published on Realestate.com.au, shows that 22.3% of Brisbane suburbs recorded price declines over the June quarter.
The downturn is sharpest in inner-city, prestige and lifestyle suburbs, where some medians have dropped by $50,000–$100,000 in just three months.
Falls are also concentrated in detached houses, with buyers shifting to cheaper units and townhouses.
The drivers of the downturn include the federal budget’s removal of negative gearing on established homes and changes to capital gains tax, which have spooked investors.
Higher interest rates, global uncertainty, and weak consumer sentiment are also keeping buyers cautious.
That said, Queensland’s slowdown is milder than in NSW and Victoria, where around 70% of suburbs recorded price drops.
Still, property valuers at Herron Todd White expect prices to fall further, as major policy shifts have scared away investors.
The firm’s research revealed widespread industry panic over the budget’s property tax reforms, with three in four property professionals expecting residential investors to either sell off their portfolios or stop investing entirely.
Ultimately, Brisbane home prices became unsustainable, and a correction is long overdue.
