Why everybody is wrong about rate hikes

Tuesday 7 April 2026

Here, everybody is saying rate hikes are coming.

I put it to this gathered bulb of seething spitfires: why is nobody factoring in the distinct possibility that the Iran War does not end any time soon?

Even if the war ended today, Australia is highly likely to face some form of fuel rationing from May through July, and it will likely continue for as long as the war runs.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.