RBA to hike into fuelpocaplypse

Thursday 30 April 2026

In the March quarter, the CPI increased by 1.4%, which was in line with market expectations. Some handy charts from Westpac unpack it for us.

Headline inflation, which was 2.1% annually in mid-2025 and rose to 3.6% annually in December, is once again accelerating to 4.1% annually.

Ironically, we have finally priced the Ukraine War shock. Unravelling of energy discounts was the primary cause of the acceleration through 2025, but the Gulf crisis and the ensuing spike in motor fuel prices are what are causing the acceleration in early 2026.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.