After an Easter weekend of madness (literally), there is little hope of the Strait of Hormuz reopening to material hydrocarbon volumes for another month. We are now getting some Iraqi oil, but only for Iranian allies. Even in the best-case scenario of an Iran deal with Oman, the exit of Trump, and Israel’s acquiescence, it will take a month to ramp up flows.
Thereafter, the ramp-up in oil output, assuming no slump back into conflict (another major risk), takes a month to normalise and another month to arrive in Australia.
In short, the best case for a return to the old fuel supply chain supporting Australia is early in July.
