Ceasefire of the Madman

Friday 10 April 2026

HSBC states the obvious in a new geopolitical paper.

Reducing global tensions should lower demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset in foreign exchange markets.

Higher-risk and undervalued currencies would benefit from this, especially in emerging markets (EM) and energy-importing nations in Europe and Asia that were most impacted by rising energy prices.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.