NDIS disables the federal budget and economy

The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is a major driver of the growth in public spending. It has also driven an unprecedented boom in healthcare and social assistance jobs, which since 2020 have decoupled from other English-speaking nations:

The latest costings on the NDIS, illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, reveal that NDIS payments made to participants in the December quarter of 2025 grew 16.1% year-over-year:

Therefore, after a period of consolidation, NDIS cost growth has reaccelerated.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:

$24.99 / month

$249 / year

Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe

Share

About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.