Why the oil price is stable

Tuesday 12 May 2026

Morgan Stanley has some great charts today.

Two factors we have mentioned before: the oil market had buffers at the start of the conflict, and the market persistently expects reopening of the Strait soon

However, two other factors also play a role: seaborne oil exports from the US have surged, up an unexpectedly large 3.8 mb/d YoY in the last 30 days

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.