Who wins the oil blockade?

Monday 4 May 2026

POTUS says Iran is going to capitulate as its oil wells explode. BofA estimates the timeline.

Modest oil exports (250k bpd) at high oil prices could allow the Iranian regime to remain cohesive and service its wage bill, at the cost of potentially wider post-war economic imbalances.

This could instruct the Iranian regime in its conduct of negotiations (including financial relief demands) and affect the US-Iran war of attrition timeline. US president Trump appears to be exploring options to alter the timeline through military and IOC briefings, alongside continued indirect talks, according to press reports.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.